Gibraltar & The Treaty — The Reading RoomThe three routes on one time line
The automatic route takes about 7 months. The chosen exit takes about 11 to 12 months. Both are our own sums from the text (see “Our arithmetic and our reading”).
Time line in months, three routes. Automatic route (Article 19(5)): 30 days for the UK to answer, then 90 days in which the can decide otherwise, then the ending takes effect 3 months later: about 7 months in all. Chosen exit (Article 334): written notice, and the treaty ends on the first day of the twelfth month after it: about 11 to 12 months. Exit after the evaluation (Article 66): the same notice and timing, but only once the evaluation of the rules on the movement of people has been completed. The exact words of the treaty are in the boxes below the picture.Cooperation CouncilThe treaty's top joint body: representatives of the European Union (EU) and of the United Kingdom (UK) acting for Gibraltar, with Gibraltar's nominees beside the UK Minister under the Concordat. It watches over the treaty and takes the decisions the treaty leaves to it.
The start is different for each route: see the line under each route’s name.
Automatic route
Starts when the EU tells the UK, for Gibraltar, about a new EU law.
In plain words: The EU must tell the UK straight away when it adopts such a law. The UK, for Gibraltar, then has 30 days to tell the EU whether it accepts the law and will put it into its own law.
The treaty’s exact words
- Article 19(1)
“…under the conditions laid down in paragraphs 2 to 4, in a subsequent Union act, namely…”
- Article 19(1)
“…a Union act amending or replacing a Union act as referred to in point (a)…”
- Article 19(1)
“…a Union act supplementing or implementing a Union act as referred to in point (a)…”
- Article 19(1)
“…another Union act on the subject matter of a Union act as referred to in point (a)”
- Article 19(2)
“…it shall immediately notify the United Kingdom, in respect of Gibraltar, of the adoption of such act”
- 30 daysArticle 19(3)
“…Within 30 days of the notification referred to in paragraph 2…”
- Article 19(3)
“…shall notify the Union of its decision whether to accept the content of, and to implement into its domestic law, the subsequent Union act…”
In plain words: Any one of the three is enough. The six-week report is counted from the day the EU law comes into force; the text sets no link between that day and the date of the EU notification, so the picture is drawn for the case where the UK stays silent for the full 30 days.
The treaty’s exact words
- Article 19(5)
“…notifies its decision not to accept the content of a subsequent Union act…”
- Article 19(5)
“…does not make a notification within the time limit set out in paragraph 3…”
- six weeksArticle 19(5)
“…does not inform the Union, at the latest six weeks after the entry into force of a subsequent Union act, of the implementation of that act into its domestic law…”
In plain words: The 90 days run from the UK saying no, or from the end of the 30 days, or from the end of the six weeks. Our reading of what mutual consent means for a rescue is in the side notes.
The treaty’s exact words
- Article 19(5)
“…unless the Cooperation Council, after a careful examination of ways to continue the Agreement, decides otherwise…”
- 90 daysArticle 19(5)
“…within 90 days of the notification referred to in point (a) or the expiry of the time limit referred to in point (b) or (c)…”
- Article 19(5)
“…this Agreement shall be considered terminated…”
- Article 22(1)
“…It shall comprise representatives of the Union, and of the United Kingdom, in respect of Gibraltar…”
- by mutual consentArticle 24(2)
“…shall adopt decisions and make recommendations by mutual consent”
In plain words: Counted from the EU notification, with silence for the 30 days, that is about 7 months in all (our arithmetic, below). A refusal inside the 30 days makes it shorter.
The treaty’s exact words
- three monthsArticle 19(5)
“…Termination of this Agreement shall take effect three months after the expiry of the 90-day period”
Chosen exit
Starts when the EU or the UK gives written notice.
In plain words: Either side can do this. The text of this article asks for no reason.
The treaty’s exact words
- Article 334
“Either Party may terminate this Agreement by written notification through diplomatic channels…”
In plain words: The exact length depends on the day of the month on which the notice is given (our arithmetic, below).
The treaty’s exact words
- twelfth monthArticle 334
“…This Agreement and any supplementing agreement shall cease to be in force on the first day of the twelfth month following the date of notification”
Exit after the evaluation
Starts when the EU or the UK gives written notice, which can only come after the evaluation of the rules on the movement of people. The chosen exit stays open as well.
In plain words: The on the circulation of persons completes it, following consultations, at the latest 4 years after those rules come into force, and reports to the Cooperation Council. This route opens only once the evaluation is completed.EU-UK treaty committeeOne of the working committees the treaty sets up, each for a subject area, under the Cooperation Council. The treaty calls them “Specialised Committees”. Gibraltar has a seat on each under the Concordat.
The treaty’s exact words
In plain words: The chosen exit above stays open as well.
The treaty’s exact words
- Article 66(1)
“…the Union, including at the request of the Kingdom of Spain, and the United Kingdom may terminate this Agreement by written notification through diplomatic channels…”
- Article 66(1)
“…without prejudice to Article 334…”
- Article 66(2)
“…Where the Kingdom of Spain has requested the Union to terminate this Agreement, in accordance with paragraph 1, the Union shall take the necessary steps in accordance with its internal procedures…”
In plain words: The same rule and the same timing as the chosen exit.
The treaty’s exact words
- twelfth monthArticle 66(1)
“…This Agreement and any supplementing agreement shall cease to be in force on the first day of the twelfth month following the date of notification”
Other breaches: what else can happen
Other breaches do not end the treaty by themselves. They go to the dispute steps (picture C), which end in suspending obligations, not in ending the treaty. There is one exception, in Article 16.
Article 16: a serious breach of the essential elements
The treaty’s exact words
- Article 16(1)
“…Article 8(1), Article 9(1) and Article 10(1) constitute essential elements of the cooperation established by this Agreement and any supplementing agreement”
- Article 16(2)
“…If either Party considers that there has been a serious and substantial failure by the other Party to fulfil any of the obligations that are described as essential elements in paragraph 1…”
- Article 16(2)
“…it may decide to terminate or suspend the operation of this Agreement or any supplementing agreement in whole or in part”
- Article 16(3)
“…the Party invoking the application of this Article shall request that the Cooperation Council meet immediately…”
- 30 daysArticle 16(3)
“…If no mutually agreeable solution is found within 30 days from the date of the request to the Cooperation Council, the Party may take the measures referred to in paragraph 2”
- Article 16(4)
“…shall be in full respect of international law and shall be proportionate. Priority shall be given to the measures which least disturb the functioning of this Agreement…”
- Article 16(5)
“…its gravity and nature would have to be of an exceptional sort that threatens peace and security or that has international repercussions…”
- Article 16(5)
“…an act or omission which materially defeats the object and purpose of the Paris Agreement shall always be considered as a serious and substantial failure…”
We searched the text for words about ending or suspending the treaty. Apart from Articles 19(5), 66 and 334, the only article we found that lets a Party end the whole treaty is Article 16, and only for a serious and substantial failure of the essential elements. Other breaches go to the dispute steps, which end in suspending obligations, not in ending the treaty. Articles 67 and 252 also allow suspension, but only within limits. Article 67(1): only after consultations, only for serious non-respect of commitments under its own Part or a serious and persistent threat to internal security because there are no controls between the two sides, and only for the obligations under Titles I to V of that Part. Article 252(2): only in four cases, which are insufficient or defective application of the provisions of its own Title (or of Article 19(1) for EU acts made applicable to Gibraltar), lack of cooperation to address irregularities, fraud or diversion of trade, objective and verifiable information of systematic and large-scale breaches of customs legislation, and errors, maladministration or abuses. The measure is to suspend the treaty or to take the measures in paragraph 3 (a higher collection cost, no reimbursement of duties collected, or the EU charging the VAT and excise duty of the where the designated customs post is, when goods bound for Gibraltar start their transit). The Party must first notify the Cooperation Council and, if no solution is agreed within three months, may act alone (Article 252(4)).EU countriesThe countries that belong to the European Union (EU). The treaty calls each of them a “Member State”.
Back to contentsBack to contentsOur arithmetic and our reading
Automatic route. If the UK makes no notification within 30 days of the EU’s notification, the 90 days and then the 3 months add up to 209 to 212 days from the EU’s notification, about 7 months. If the UK refuses, the total depends on the day within those 30 days on which it refuses: 179 to 212 days, between about 6 and about 7 months. For the six-week report, the text sets no link between the date of the EU’s notification and the date the EU law enters into force, so no total can be given. Chosen exit, and exit after the evaluation. We read “the twelfth month following the date of notification” as the twelfth calendar month after the month of the notice, with the treaty ending on its first day. Counted from the day of the notice, that is 335 to 366 days, about 11 to 12 months. Example: notice given on 15 March 2027 ends the treaty on 1 March 2028, 352 days later. Calculated for 730 start dates (17 October 2026 to 15 October 2028); the bars are drawn at the months these days give, at 30.4375 days to the month; see the check file.
Our readingThe Cooperation Council adopts decisions by mutual consent (Article 24(2)). So if either side does not agree to decide otherwise, the Council cannot do so and the termination goes ahead. Article 19(5) does not say this in so many words.
Back to contentsBack to contentsIf the UK, for Gibraltar, needs constitutional steps before a new EU law can become part of its own law, does the provisional application in the meantime (Article 19(4)) count as the report in Article 19(5)(c)? The text does not say.
- Article 19(4)
“…From the entry into force of the subsequent Union act and until the information upon fulfilment of constitutional requirements, the United Kingdom, in respect of Gibraltar, shall provisionally apply, to the largest extent possible, the same rules as those contained in the subsequent Union act”
- Article 19(5)
“…does not inform the Union, at the latest six weeks after the entry into force of a subsequent Union act, of the implementation of that act into its domestic law…”
Searched: paragraph 5 of Article 19 for “provisional” and “constitutional”, and the clause data of Volume I for any other clause that names Article 19(4) or 19(5). Found: none.
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